For all intents and purposes, the college game is dictated as much by the coach’s system, as it is by the strength of your starting point guard. As we mentioned earlier, John Calipari was finally able to guide his Kentucky Wildcats to a National Title this past season. Throughout his tenure at Kentucky, Calipari went from John Wall, to Brandon Knight, to Marquis Teague. Meaning to say, Calipari went from John Wall and Brandon Knight, two top 10 NBA draft picks and no success to Marquis Teague, a freshman guard that is expected to be a top 15 pick in this year’s draft. What this tells us is that Calipari mainly looks for good floor IQ rather then overall skill. That is to say, the reason Teague helped guide Kentucky to a National Title was because his main focus was making the other four players on the court look sensational.

Another guard receiving high praise, that is a beneficiary of his school’s system, is North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall. Along with big men Harrison Barnes, John Zeller and Tyler Henson, Kendall Marshall appeared as the missing link to set his team up for an extended playoff run. Similar to Teague, Marshall was able to get the most out of his big men, while sticking to the system. However, the main difference was that when Marshall broke his wrist, the wheels fell off for North Carolina, since they had no backup to continue to execute the system.

Character – When a new coach is hired to help turn around a struggling program, you want them to be filled with character. In other words, the type of program depicted on the court, should portray the coach’s philosophy, and style. For example, with the struggling Virginia Tech Hokies promoting assistant coach James Johnson to Head Coach, the school is showing that they believe in the character of Johnson. What this includes, is that they feel Johnson is accountable, hard working and motivational, three things needed to assure success.

Proven Winner – One important quality that differentiates good programs from terrible ones is having a coach or coaching staff that has won in the past or has the work ethic to win in the near future. Using the Johnson example from above, NBA scores followers would see that under previous tenures with Virginia Tech, Johnson was a catalyst for success. Another example is with the current National Champion Kentucky Wildcats and head coach John Calipari. When Calipari came over from Memphis, he brought with him a proven track record of recruiting high end talent and winning.

Passion – As we noted in character, a new coach should be able to institute their philosophy on the hardwood. For this reason, having a coach that eat sleeps and breathes basketball, will in theory show up through his players on the court. Simply put, when a team isn’t passionate during games, it is because the coach isn’t passionate either. By having a coach that loves what they do, and expects that from their players, success will soon follow.

The 2011 – 12 college basketball season was a disastrous one for the UCLA Bruins and in particular Head Coach Ben Howland. After entering the season as the favorite to win the PAC 12, the Bruins quickly spiraled out of control. First Reeves Nelson was accused of intentionally injuring teammates, and then it was revealed, that Howland refused to punish his big man for these crimes. Along with a missed opportunity at returning to the March Madness Tournament, it seemed only a matter of time before Howland was removed as the Bruins Head Coach.

That was until last week, when Howland shocked the world, by signing Shabazz Muhammad, the NBA prized possession of the 2012 freshmen class. In Muhammad, along with fellow top prospect Kyle Anderson, Howland has two stars that could recapture the glory of the Bruins program from earlier in the decade, when Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love carried the program. The additions of Muhammad and Anderson also give Howland his last chance to prove he should remain the Head Coach of the Bruins. After all, if UCLA misses the March Madness Tournament, the impact of the additions of freshmen Muhammad and Anderson, won’t be felt for long. In other words, if UCLA doesn’t return to prominence next season, Howland has to be fired.

As one can imagine, the Kentucky Wildcats remain the favorite to repeat as March Madness Champion. According to the local sportsbook, Kentucky is a six to one favorite to repeat in 2012-13. The best odds are a bit surprising, as it is expected that the Wildcats will lose the aforementioned Davis, along with Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Marquis Teague, to the NBA draft this June. All four players were huge factors for the success this season. In fact, we would argue, that while freshmen Davis and Teague received the majority of praise from handicappers and analysts alike, had it not been for the return of Jones and Lamb, Kentucky may have failed to live up to expectations.

On the other hand, a team with weak odds for next season is the team that Kentucky should have faced, the North Carolina Tar Heels. After skipping out on last season’s draft, Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller returned to UNC this season in an effort to make it to the National Title game. Instead, the trio put up a mediocre performance throughout the tournament, and bowed out in the elite eight to Kansas. They still remain in the mix at 10 to one odds, but only because the bookies are uncertain of which players will go to the NBA and who will stay for their junior years.

One of the best handicapping systems, to take teams opposing what the public is choosing, is to look at favorites of six or more points with 75 percent or higher of public confidence. When breaking down these games, you will quickly find, that the favorite could not live up to the expectation of the bettors, as they almost never covered such a significant point spread. In fact, the favorites only covered the spread in 46 percent of those games. It’s worth noting as well, that in order for the system to work, the game had to be backed by the public more so then your average game. For example, when Duke faced Butler in the National Title game two years ago, they were a six-point favorite with 80 percent public support. As it ended up, NBA college basketball bettors were shocked to see Butler come within two points of winning the game.

Betting against the public in college basketball, is a bit of a challenge in the months leading up to March Madness, because of the parity in the NCAA. From December to the end of February, there is a huge gap in good and bad teams. In the March Madness tournament, as the weaker teams get squeezed out, it is more difficult to tell who to lay your money with. One game that the public may avoid is Marquette v Florida, as despite their rankings in the tournament, the underdog Gators should only be a three-point underdog.

Points per game are a basic stat that a lot of new handicappers use, and one that some sportsbooks base their lines upon. As the name suggests, the stat looks at the team with most points per game. However just because a team scores a lot, doesn’t necessarily mean that they can have a good record against the spread, as they are sure to give up a lot of points as well. For example, during the 2010 season, the Texas Longhorns and Kansas Jayhawks were two of the highest ranked PPG teams in the nation, averaging nearly 70 points a game and 65. Nevertheless, the Longhorns were an abysmal eight and 10 against the spread, while the Jayhawks were a disappointing nine-nine- one in 19 games. Meaning to say, this indicated to NBA trade deadline bettors, that they should bet against Texas and Kansas on the spread.

Another statistic we look at when handicapping against the spread offensively, is rebounding. The best schools in the nation tend to have the most rebounds, as they continue the plays and score the most point. As we mentioned earlier, Texas ranked highly in points scored, there for they also ranked highly in offensive boards, but were still an abysmal eight and 10 against the spread. At the same time, Wake Forest was a team that shocked many, as while they didn’t put up that much offense, they were ranked third in the NCAA in offensive boards. With this being the case, Wake Forest owned a record of 15 and five against the spread.

One of the most important things to focus on is how a team approaches each game. A college basketball game could come down to which teams brings more intensity and sustains a level of focus and determination throughout the entire course of the game, so it isn’t always the best decision to bet on the most talented team. Of course, winning can also lead to a team being hyped more than it should be, which will be reflected by the pay head bookies creating greater differences in the lines than their should be in order to compensate for what the gambling public is wagering on. Some of the best teams are the ones that do everything to win, and have enough talent to hit the big shots or battle for the win at both ends of the floors. The health and mental state of key players is also crucial, as those are the players that will be expected to perform in the clutch. It is never a bad idea to roll with the favorites in the conference tournament games since they have already proven they can take down the teams that they are playing, just make sure that they didn’t do too much during the regular season and establish a point spread line that is greater than it should be.

For all intents and purposes, after this weekend’s bracket buster tournament, you can count the number of teams that have qualified for the March Madness tournament at 35. With the world’s greatest playoff tournament calling for 64 teams to qualify and battle it out to be named National Champion, there are still plenty of teams with an opportunity to get into the tournament. Similar to handicapping the early part of an NBA season, there are many factors to consider when picking the correct bubble teams to make it into the tournament. Here are a couple tips.

Look for teams that have experienced rosters, that is to say teams whose starting five have been together for a couple of years, with some of the players in their senior year and the other spread out between sophomore and junior. Being on the bubble to get into the tournament, can be an overwhelming experience for everyone involved. Nevertheless, those teams with an experienced roster should hold an advantage over their opponents in the remaining schedule. Essentially, the team chemistry established over the last couple of years, should allow bettors to turn a profit.

There’s a huge difference between college basketball players and NBA stars, as the professionals can quickly adapt to the rough schedule while the college players are pampered to a regard. Essentially, college players range in age from 17 to 22, which means that these are young men still developing into adulthood. With this being the case, many players have an emotional attachment to specific games, and may coast during others. For example, the Connecticut Huskies can get up emotionally to play well against rivals from the Big East. However, when they play a team such as Louisville, who is not in their conference, they may be tired due to the short rest between games.

When using an NBA handicapping to wager on teams playing on short rest, the trick is to look at games with totals of 150 or higher. Teams playing the second of back-to-back games, or a game after a one-day lay off are more likely to have a letdown, then say a team playing its first game of the week. Using a handicapping system we’ve had since the 2008 – 09 season, taking games in which both teams are playing on short rest during the regular season, has allowed us to accumulate a record of 80-59-1 for a win percentage of 57.6 percent.

The public typically bets on the favorites in each game, as these are the teams expected to win the games. In our betting system we mentioned earlier, we are looking at college basketball teams favored by six or more points with public support of 75 percent or higher. The system has found, that in this scenario, favorites have won 46.1 percent of the time, while the underdog has won 53.9 percent of the time. Meaning to say, if you are handicapping college basketball on the premise of fading the public, having a win percent rate of 53.9 will turn you a profit in the long run.

In the world of sports betting in general, if you can win at least 50 percent of your bets, you are considered a good bettor. By winning 54 percent by using the system we mentioned earlier, you can turn a very good profit by the end of the season. To put this into perspective, consider, that if you win only 46 of your 100 bets, over the season, you stand to lose $1,340. Yet, if you are winning 54 percent through the system, you can turn a profit of $340 by seasons end. What’s important to consider is how teams fare at home and on the road. Road underdogs have a tendency to perform well away from home, because there is less pressure to come out on top.